| June Allen Lead | August Allen Lead | Difference | |
| All | 19 | 3 | -16 |
| Hispanic | 56 | -23 | -79 |
| 18-34 | 23 | -17 | -40 |
| Urban | 11 | -23 | -34 |
| Southeast | 31 | 0 | -31 |
| Some College | 30 | 3 | -27 |
| College | 35 | 9 | -26 |
| Moderate | -5 | -28 | -23 |
| 40K-80K | 19 | 0 | -19 |
| <40K | 27 | 9 | -18 |
| Female | 12 | -5 | -17 |
| Independent | 15 | -2 | -17 |
| Disapprove | -44 | -61 | -17 |
| Shenandoah | 31 | 14 | -17 |
| 65+ | 17 | 2 | -15 |
| Other | -42 | -56 | -14 |
| Male | 25 | 11 | -14 |
| Northeast | 0 | -14 | -14 |
| White | 30 | 17 | -13 |
| 60-64 | 12 | 0 | -12 |
| Liberal | -55 | -67 | -12 |
| Suburban | 21 | 9 | -12 |
| Black | -31 | -42 | -11 |
| Democratic | -68 | -79 | -11 |
| Grad School | -6 | -13 | -7 |
| 35-49 | 24 | 17 | -7 |
| Conservative | 82 | 76 | -6 |
| Approve | 92 | 87 | -5 |
| 80K | 8 | 3 | -5 |
| Central | 19 | 14 | -5 |
| Rural | 20 | 17 | -3 |
| Republican | 83 | 84 | 1 |
| No College | 27 | 35 | 8 |
With most young people finding George Allen racist, his poll numbers in that demographic have collapsed, a change of 40 (!) points in 2 months.
4 Comments
I enjoy looking at these numbers as much as anybody else, but . . .
With a total universe of only 756, are the numbers for the subgroups (Hispanic, 18-34, etc.) so small as to lack any statistical validity?
Bob, the subgroups do have a high margin of error- but the poll does not. Since the poll showed such a major shift, that shift had to come from someone. That means these numbers are not exact, but pretty close, since the overall electorate had to shift somewhere by 16 points.
Folks, the only numbers that matter will come on the first Tuesday after the first Mondauy in November. That said, a lot of us conservative Republicans are quite embarrassed that Allen is so tone deaf and clumsy. Allen’s arrogance that’s been demonstrated here is what has people’s attention more than anything else. The points and statistical significance of the “poll” are much less important than the mood and “temperature” measurement that they may represent. Baby, it’s hot outside.
Fascinating results Kenton. I’m not worried about the “actual” numbers of these polls because that can vary poll to poll; what you can’t argue about is the overall trend, which is amazing and quite telling. Looks like one guy has fallen off a cliff and the other guy has climbed a mountain. Catestrophic for Allen. Catestrophic.