These rankings are done National Journal style–the higher up on the list it is, the more likely it is to flip. Incumbents are noted by asterisks.
Current outlook: +5 Democrat
| Rank | District | Incumbent | Challenger | Location |
| 1 | 34 | Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis* (R) | Chap Petersen (D) | Central Fairfax |
| JMDD has over 500k in the bank, versus Chap’s 168k. Why is this seat up top? Chap! is a Democrat, has won before, and JMDD is watching her district change right before her. More importantly, Democrats are throwing themselves at this race because, hey, JMDD is married to Tom Davis. | ||||
| 2 | 37 | Ken Cuccinelli* (R) | Janet Oleszek (D) | Western Fairfax |
| The money isn’t flowing into this district like it is into the neighboring 34th. Even though Ken has raised over twice the amount Janet has, he’s burned through it twice as fast. Ken leads in cash-on-hand 168k to 105k, but a margin like that will not help you if your Democratic district swears that you’re a foaming-at-the-mouth whackjob hell-bent on starving public schools, bringing back the coat-hanger abortion, and sponsoring all manner of nasty bills. It will help you if your Democratic opponent doesn’t convince them of that. Cooch’s challenge: present a softer, fuzzier conservatism that doesn’t actually mention “Republican” or “conservative”. | ||||
| 3 | 06 | Nick Rerras* (R) | Ralph Northam (D) | Eastern Shore/Norfolk |
| Rerras’ situation is a less dire version of Cuccinelli’s predicament, only his district is practically 50-50 and, relative to Ken, is not perceived as a whackjob. Still, with a razor-thin margin like that, being an incumbent helps. Northam, who will be identified this year by a blue crab, has wads of cash (100k from his father and 28k from himself), and currently leads in cash-on-hand 211k to 129k. Even taking out the self-financing and money from Dad, that leaves him with a respectable ~100k. Financially, Northam is running a tight ship, spending a little over 50k so far. Rerras, to put it charitably, is not. He’s raised 326k and spent 200k of it–and it’s only June! | ||||
| 4 | 39 | Jay O’Brien* (R) | George Barker (D) | Hard to say… |
| Jay O’Brien’s district takes a chunk of (going roughly west to east, and from most Republican to most Democratic) Prince William, Clifton, Fairfax Station, Springfield, Lorton, and Franconia. Politically, these areas have little in common, ranging from solid Democrat to solid Republican. Barker comes out of the primary with 33k in the kitty–but O’Brien’s total of 66k, while twice Barker’s, is nothing to brag about. Barker wins by pushing high turnout in Franconia and picking off Democratic-trending precincts in Lorton. Otherwise, O’Brien squeaks by. | ||||
| 5 | 28 | Richard Stuart (R) | Albert Pollard (D) | Northern Neck |
| Local institution Albert Pollard has been running neck-and-neck in terms of fundraising with his opponent, Richard Stuart, but leads roughly 3:1 in cash-on hand because of Stuart’s nomination spending. Pollard should be able to keep up in terms of money, and the fact he’s already well-known in the area thanks to his stint in the House of Delegates should be a boon. The fact that this district is red as a fire truck requires that a Democrat have local roots to supplant this disadvantage–something Pollard has. Will it be enough? | Cutoff–races above this line will flip. Races below this line could still catch fire. | |||
| 6 | 20 | Chuck Colgan* (D) | Bob FitzSimmonds (R) | Western Prince William |
| This seat represents the only real offense Republicans have this cycle in the upper chamber (it’s great that conservatives spent so much time RINO-hunting that they forgot there were Democrats to challenge, I suppose). Colgan is Pollard in a stronger position–incumbency. While this puts the 20th below the 28th on the rankings, Colgan still needs to watch out. Had he not run, this seat would’ve rocketed to the top of this list–this district bleeds Republican–but Democratic leaders convinced Colgan to give it another go. Colgan has outraised FitzSimmonds 2:1 and holds a 4:1 cash advantage. | ||||
| 7 | 13 | Fred Quayle* (R) | Steve Heretick (D) | Surry-Isle of Wight-Portsmouth |
| Heretick is a credible candidate in a terrible district. His seat on the Portsmouth City Council gives him points–except his district isn’t based around Portsmouth. The way this district is drawn, a surefire victory for Heretick means an election-eve asteroid striking west of Portsmouth. I wouldn’t discount this race just yet, but Heretick could come close, but the district geography is just too tough for me to be optimistic on this one. | ||||
| 8 | 27 | Jill Holtzman Vogel (R) | Karen Schultz (D) | Winchester |
| Looking at the straight-up partisan lay of the land, this race is a no-brainer–Holtzman-Vogel in a walk. The reason I haven’t dropped this race into the bottom tier is if any of this RPV-Mark Tate-Indictment story is traced to Holtzman-Vogel, things could get more interesting. I’ll let this one sit here for a bit while it plays out. | Cutoff–below this line is “live girl/dead boy” territory. Major earthquake required. | |||
| 9 | 22 | Ralph Smith (R) | Michael Breiner (D) | Roanoke |
| Interestingly, Briener has so far outraised Smith 95k to 59k. He leads in cash 80k to 14k. District is still red as it gets. | ||||
| 10 | 20 | Roscoe Reynolds* (D) | Jeff Evans (R) | Martinsville |
| Reynolds has incumbency and a crushing cash advantage. | ||||
| 11 | 24 | Emmett Hanger* (R) | David Cox (D) | SWACland |
| Hanger-Sayre is over and done with. The SWACtion will probably end up with their heads on poles. This one’s for entertainment value. | ||||
| 12 | 26 | Mark Obenshain* (R) | Maxine Hope Roles (D) | Front Royal-Harrisonburg |
| With a middle name like Hope… | ||||
| 13 | 33 | Mark Herring* (D) | Patricia Phillips (R) | Sterling |
| I think I have more money under my mattress than Patricia Phillips does in her campaign account. | ||||
| 14 | 33 | Edd Houck* (D) | Chris Yakabouski (R) | Fredericksburg |
| Yaaaaaaaaawn. | ||||
| Below this line are independent challengers only. These Senators will jockey amongst themselves to see who can win with the most crushingly gigantic margin. I’m just guessing percentages. | ||||
|
15. 35 Richard Saslaw (D) |
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5 Comments
You mean “dead girl/live boy”? That’s the old Earle Edwards line.
FAscinating analysis and I hope ALL CORRECT. Looking for the House predictions soon!
Impressive work, Kenton!
why are all the dems obsessed with the 28th. Rememeber we nominated the moderate candidate whose base offsets the D guy. We are going to clean up in Stafford et all. But feel free to waste money anyway
Two are definently in play 6,34
The 39th might be in play
I’m not going to help you on the 37th but lets just say i’m loving the way this race is playing out so far.
Other districts no chance as of right now
Still saying 2-4 and leaning towards just 2
Kenton, Chuck Colgan represents me in the 29th district, not the 20th…
Easy to understand typo.
Excellent analysis, thank you.