With barely days to go until the voter registration deadline for what promises to be a record-breaking year, thousands of voter registration and absentee ballot form pile up on registrar desks. However, the spike in voter registration has not been equally distributed statewide. Unsurprisingly, fast-growing localities are bursting at the seams with voter gains, and localities with flagging or negative population growth have actually seen their voter rolls shrink.
This map, however, is misleading. Even though most localities recorded an increase in their voter rolls, since November 2004, statewide voter rolls have grown by 5.94%. What this means for many localities is, even though their voter rolls have grown, because the growth was slower than the statewide growth they lost out as a percentage of the statewide electorate. Localities that do not grow as fast as the state also are relative losers, seeing their piece of the state pie shrink. To that end, I have mapped out below each locality’s change in its percentage of the electorate.
Counties like Loudon and King George saw their share of the statewide electorate grow by over 10% in less than four years, while almost all of Southwest Virginia saw their share of the electorate shrink. Similarly, Hampton Roads and Fairfax County were unable to match the torrid pace of growth in Washington’s outlying suburbs, while Central Virginia kept pace with the statewide average. Fairfax County, even though it still remains the 800-pound gorilla in Virginia politics, saw below-average growth, a symptom of its demographic maturation. The influx of inbound migration that caused Fairfax County’s boom has ended, giving way to a net loss in migration while sustaining its growth with births (a topic previously covered here). Likewise, the city of Virginia Beach grows organically as opposed to with migration like in Loudon County, resulting in a more steady pool of voters.
Notice how nearly all the counties west of the Hillary Line, counties in Southwest that Hillary Clinton won in February’s presidential primary, grow less and less powerful relative to the rest of the state. This is indicative both of the voter influx brought on by Barack Obama, but also by a long-term stagnation and decline in population. Arlington County in the far north of the state, while relatively stable in terms of population growth, shows a marked increase in voter registration due to heightened interest and intensive efforts in that heavily Democratic county.
Ranking 2nd, incidentally, in voter roll growth was the City of Williamsburg, which saw its share of the electorate jump 12.6%. This can most likely be explained by a change in leadership at the city registrar’s office–the new voter registrar finally allowed students at the College of William and Mary to register to vote. Coupled with the Obama campaign’s obvious interest, Williamsburg’s voter rolls have bulged at roughly the pace of Loudoun’s without corresponding population growth.
Looking ahead, these maps give a little insight into the next redistricting cycle. Expect district lines to lurch northeastward as districts in the south and west of the state grow larger physically as populations shrink.
